It is understatement to say that the November 2020 elections will be
momentous for America. Regardless of the outcomes, about half the politically
aware public will be outraged the day after the results are final. But more
important, America’s future will be shaped for generations to come.
The lines of division among Americans are bright and important. Two major factions comprise American society: the "never Trump" folks, and the “thank-God-for-Trump” folks. Few Americans are indifferent. Never Trumpers despise Trump beyond all reason. Thank-God-for-Trump folks absolutely adore what he has accomplished so far, and they support what he promises to accomplish in the future.
It is also understatement to say that leaders in the Democrat Party and their rank and file core are obsessed with removing Trump from office — if not by the ballot box, by whatever other means possible. Additional impeachment attempts are not out of the question, if the Democrats hold the House and Trump is reelected.
Why are Democrats so determined to depose Trump? Is it really the case that Trump is such a despicable human being that he simply must be deposed? I have friends and colleagues who say "yes, absolutely, yes." These friends and colleagues tell me that Trump is loathsome, a racist, a liar, a hound dog, and a cheat in business who in no way deserves to be wealthy. These people will tell you that Trump is an “existential threat,” which appears to be one of their favorite expressions.
In years past, it's been popular for political pundits to say "it's the economy, stupid." My hypothesis for explaining the extreme animus of Democrat leadership and the party faithful against Trump is "it's the courts, stupid." And even more to the point, "it's abortion, stupid."
The Democrats understand completely that should Trump get to appoint even one more Justice to the Supreme Court, never mind tens of additional federal court judges, and God forbid two Justices, the future for Democrat ideological preferences will be significantly dimmer for at least 30 to 40 years, if not longer.
More to the immediate threat for Democrats, they fear that Trump’s reelection would almost guarantee the Supreme Court reconsidering Roe v. Wade. As everyone knows and agrees, the issue of abortion is important, divisive, and quite possibly irreconcilable.
The mad-dash impeachment foisted by the Democrats was a failed attempt to forestall a potential third SCOTUS appointment before the November elections, in my opinion. With eight months to go before the November 2020 elections, even now that possibility is still not off the table. Can you imagine the turmoil and havoc that will ensue, should a SCOTUS vacancy occur during the next six months?
In my opinion, the probability is high and growing that Trump will be reelected. If he is, the future of America depends critically on whether the U.S. Senate remains in Republican control. Control of the House is less important. After all, Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House during the first two years of Trump’s first term, without delivering funding for Trump’s wall and without repealing Obamacare.
Nonetheless, should Republicans hold on to the Senate and also regain control of the House (scenario 1 below), we might see repeal of Obamacare, reforms to immigration policy, and extension of federal tax cuts passed and signed into law in 2017.
The U.S. Senate is arguably the most important and significant political institution in America. It is so because the Senate confirms Supreme Court Justices and federal court judges. And as we saw in February 2020, impeachment by the House is empty, if the Senate does not convict. The significance of Supreme Court appointments is clear enough, but federal court judge appointments are also important. As we have seen during the past three years, federal court judges can impede and hamper the President’s power of executive orders.
Decisions of the Supreme Court over the decades have utterly shaped the America we live in today, and will do so in the future. For example, the high court’s decisions concerning the Article 1, Section 8, Commerce Clause of the Constitution (Gibbons v. Ogden, 1824, and Wickard v. Filburn in 1942) had profound implications for subverting the limits of federal government power intended by the Founders.
In my opinion, it is U.S. Senate races that matter most come November, not the presidential race. Election scenarios 1, 2, 7, and 8 below are remarkable because each keeps the U.S. Senate in Republican control. Scenarios 1 and 2 are significant, because Trump remains President and the Senate remains in control of Republicans. Scenarios 1 and 2 mean the SCOTUS will become more originalist and constructionist, and federal court judges will be replaced with moderates and conservatives, instead of progressives.
But scenarios 7 and 8 are also important, because a Republican controlled Senate could and likely would seriously limit the ability of a Democrat president to nominate successfully any but moderate candidates for the Supreme Court and federal courts.
President Senate House
1. R R R
2. R R D
3. R D D
4. R D R
5. D D D
6. D D R
7. D R R
8. D R D
Everyone knows and agrees that independent voters will decide which scenario we get in November 2020. In my opinion, the decisions of Democrat leaders Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, and Nadler have made scenarios 1 and 2 more likely outcomes of the November elections. Because independent voters have seen the depths to which Democrat leaders have been willing to sink to depose Trump, right-of-center Democrats and independents may well be in no mood to vote for Democrats, regardless of the office in question.
Democrat leaders pulled out all the stops in 2018 - 2020. The Kavanaugh confirmation debacle, the nothing-burger Mueller investigation (brought about by a nefarious FISA court warrant), followed by the failed impeachment proceedings, may well be remembered negatively by voters in November 2020. No political actions have been beneath the Democrats, precisely because the stakes for the Supreme Court and the federal courts are so high.
The lines of division among Americans are bright and important. Two major factions comprise American society: the "never Trump" folks, and the “thank-God-for-Trump” folks. Few Americans are indifferent. Never Trumpers despise Trump beyond all reason. Thank-God-for-Trump folks absolutely adore what he has accomplished so far, and they support what he promises to accomplish in the future.
It is also understatement to say that leaders in the Democrat Party and their rank and file core are obsessed with removing Trump from office — if not by the ballot box, by whatever other means possible. Additional impeachment attempts are not out of the question, if the Democrats hold the House and Trump is reelected.
Why are Democrats so determined to depose Trump? Is it really the case that Trump is such a despicable human being that he simply must be deposed? I have friends and colleagues who say "yes, absolutely, yes." These friends and colleagues tell me that Trump is loathsome, a racist, a liar, a hound dog, and a cheat in business who in no way deserves to be wealthy. These people will tell you that Trump is an “existential threat,” which appears to be one of their favorite expressions.
In years past, it's been popular for political pundits to say "it's the economy, stupid." My hypothesis for explaining the extreme animus of Democrat leadership and the party faithful against Trump is "it's the courts, stupid." And even more to the point, "it's abortion, stupid."
The Democrats understand completely that should Trump get to appoint even one more Justice to the Supreme Court, never mind tens of additional federal court judges, and God forbid two Justices, the future for Democrat ideological preferences will be significantly dimmer for at least 30 to 40 years, if not longer.
More to the immediate threat for Democrats, they fear that Trump’s reelection would almost guarantee the Supreme Court reconsidering Roe v. Wade. As everyone knows and agrees, the issue of abortion is important, divisive, and quite possibly irreconcilable.
The mad-dash impeachment foisted by the Democrats was a failed attempt to forestall a potential third SCOTUS appointment before the November elections, in my opinion. With eight months to go before the November 2020 elections, even now that possibility is still not off the table. Can you imagine the turmoil and havoc that will ensue, should a SCOTUS vacancy occur during the next six months?
In my opinion, the probability is high and growing that Trump will be reelected. If he is, the future of America depends critically on whether the U.S. Senate remains in Republican control. Control of the House is less important. After all, Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House during the first two years of Trump’s first term, without delivering funding for Trump’s wall and without repealing Obamacare.
Nonetheless, should Republicans hold on to the Senate and also regain control of the House (scenario 1 below), we might see repeal of Obamacare, reforms to immigration policy, and extension of federal tax cuts passed and signed into law in 2017.
The U.S. Senate is arguably the most important and significant political institution in America. It is so because the Senate confirms Supreme Court Justices and federal court judges. And as we saw in February 2020, impeachment by the House is empty, if the Senate does not convict. The significance of Supreme Court appointments is clear enough, but federal court judge appointments are also important. As we have seen during the past three years, federal court judges can impede and hamper the President’s power of executive orders.
Decisions of the Supreme Court over the decades have utterly shaped the America we live in today, and will do so in the future. For example, the high court’s decisions concerning the Article 1, Section 8, Commerce Clause of the Constitution (Gibbons v. Ogden, 1824, and Wickard v. Filburn in 1942) had profound implications for subverting the limits of federal government power intended by the Founders.
In my opinion, it is U.S. Senate races that matter most come November, not the presidential race. Election scenarios 1, 2, 7, and 8 below are remarkable because each keeps the U.S. Senate in Republican control. Scenarios 1 and 2 are significant, because Trump remains President and the Senate remains in control of Republicans. Scenarios 1 and 2 mean the SCOTUS will become more originalist and constructionist, and federal court judges will be replaced with moderates and conservatives, instead of progressives.
But scenarios 7 and 8 are also important, because a Republican controlled Senate could and likely would seriously limit the ability of a Democrat president to nominate successfully any but moderate candidates for the Supreme Court and federal courts.
President Senate House
1. R R R
2. R R D
3. R D D
4. R D R
5. D D D
6. D D R
7. D R R
8. D R D
Everyone knows and agrees that independent voters will decide which scenario we get in November 2020. In my opinion, the decisions of Democrat leaders Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, and Nadler have made scenarios 1 and 2 more likely outcomes of the November elections. Because independent voters have seen the depths to which Democrat leaders have been willing to sink to depose Trump, right-of-center Democrats and independents may well be in no mood to vote for Democrats, regardless of the office in question.
Democrat leaders pulled out all the stops in 2018 - 2020. The Kavanaugh confirmation debacle, the nothing-burger Mueller investigation (brought about by a nefarious FISA court warrant), followed by the failed impeachment proceedings, may well be remembered negatively by voters in November 2020. No political actions have been beneath the Democrats, precisely because the stakes for the Supreme Court and the federal courts are so high.
2 comments:
You are ahead of the curve on this one.
I can respect someone who places great importance on the abortion issue expressing that concern by voting for politicians likely to appoint or approve judges favorable to his or her position. But I’m afraid the average voter isn’t thinking that deeply. Thinking is not encouraged by the politicians nor the media covering them.
I can not understand how rational people don’t see through all the childish, irresponsible and hypocritical behavior exhibited daily by most politicians from both parties. Even more perplexing, voters seem to believe that if the right people are elected, there will be “change” or “hope” or things will be “great again.”
Thank goodness politicians, and the bureaucrats they oversee, seem to always be a couple steps behind private innovators and creators in this country. A President, a House of Representatives, a Senate, and a Judicial Branch, apart from protecting individual liberty and property, can only make things worse. The evidence for this is everywhere.
I was hoping a silver-lining in the hatred of Donald Trump would be a surfacing of the idea that maybe we citizens should stop giving politicians, particularly the President, so much power. Unfortunately, all one has to do is listen to the promises being spewed by today’s candidates, and cheered by supporters, to see that voters aren’t learning anything from the gross mishandling of social affairs by the latest generation of sophists occupying both political parties.
You are correct, FiddlinMike
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